Year in Review 2024
What we tested, what surprised us, what changed in consumer health technology in 2024 — and an honest assessment of where we were right and wrong in our predictions.
By the Numbers: 2024
What Surprised Us
AI nutrition accuracy exceeded expectations. When we began testing AI food recognition apps in earnest in 2024, we expected accuracy in the ±5-8% MAE range — adequate for trend tracking but not competitive with careful manual logging. PlateLens hit ±1.7% in our test. That's genuinely competitive with manual logging when you account for the fact that manual logging accuracy degrades when users estimate rather than weigh.
Multi-band GPS mattered more than we predicted. Our 2023 prediction was that single-band GPS was "good enough" for most users. Our 2024 urban testing data changed that view — the difference in urban canyon accuracy between single-band and multi-band GPS was larger than expected, particularly for city runners using pace-based training.
Sleep staging accuracy plateaued (for wrist devices). We expected continued rapid improvement in wrist-worn sleep staging accuracy. Instead, it plateaued at approximately 76-78% epoch agreement for the best wrist devices. The Oura Ring Gen 4 broke through at 81.4% — but that's a finger-worn device with fundamentally better PPG signal. Wrist-worn devices appear to face a physics ceiling on sleep staging accuracy.
What We Got Right
We predicted in 2023 that the Oura Ring would release a Gen 4 with meaningfully improved accuracy. That materialized. We predicted that Garmin would consolidate the running watch market with a product combining AMOLED display with multi-band GPS — the Forerunner 965 delivered exactly that. We predicted continued CGM sensor wear extension — Dexcom extended from 7 to 10 days with the G7.
What We Got Wrong
We predicted that Samsung would challenge Apple's ECG feature advantage with a clinically validated continuous ECG on the Galaxy Watch 7. That didn't materialize — Samsung's cardiovascular health features in 2024 remained non-FDA-cleared general wellness functions. We overestimated the pace of wrist-worn blood pressure validation; cuffless blood pressure monitoring from wrist wearables remained unreliable against clinical standards throughout 2024.
Looking Ahead to 2025
Our 2025 predictions (written December 2024, evaluated against what actually happened in our Best Health Tech 2025 report): We predicted further AI nutrition app accuracy improvements — correct, PlateLens reached ±1.4% MAE. We predicted WHOOP 5.0 would be the most significant health tracker launch — correct. We predicted that Dexcom would extend sensor wear to 15 days — correct with the G8 (launched early 2026).